Crisis Update

I write this update just about every month for a newsletter I run, and I thought this month I'd post it here as well.

CRISIS UPDATE
Unless you’ve been living (or hiding –hey, I for one would understand! And if you’ve got any room, would you like a roommate?) under a rock for the past few months you might have noticed that the world has plunged into multiple crises. One each for energy, the food supply, the economy, and the environment. These are separate but intertwined crises which each have multiple effects on the others. I’m not going to call them the Four Crises of Doom as some less optimistic (yes, its possible) commentators have but I will note that they bear an odd resemblance to a certain set of horsemen Americans have tried to forget about over the past century or so. Jokes aside, this is serious stuff, and I’m going to attempt to give an update on each of these crises over the next few paragraphs so we can get a good idea where we stand.

Food –let’s start with the basics. Food is as basic as you get. There is nothing more vital than food. And it’s getting harder to come by. Prices are skyrocketing and supplies are running short. Earlier this year a report came out that said we’d need record crops this year to prevent famine. Guess what folks? That’s not going to happen. Not only is the U.S. hit hard by floods and all manner of whacked out weather but Australia lost 90% of its harvest to drought, and Africa is expected to lose virtually all –that’s right ALL –of its wheat harvest to the stem rust that has now also blown into Iran and Pakistan and is expected to debut in India and China soon, followed by the U.S. in a few more years. One report projected that if the U.S. can’t get some of the flooded fields replanted and some kind of harvest uptick we may run OUT of corn before the harvest in 2009. And we’ve added something like 70 million people to the planet in the past year. Not good. This is a recipe for disaster folks. A lot of people are going to die. Some selected food headlines:
Floods cause food prices to surge: He’s wrong about one thing. The corn growing season isn’t young; most places that are flooded absolutely have to replant by July 4th to have any hope of a harvest –and the fields have to be dry for at least 10 days before they can plant. Let’s do the math: we were on schedule to produce 11.7 billion bushels of corn this year (out of a needed 12.5 billion). Reduce that by 15% and you get roughly 9.95 billion bushels, for a total shortfall of 2.55 BILLION bushels of corn. Of course, that assumes the harvest is only down by 15%. Given the weather so far this year, that’s a bet I wouldn’t want to take. So, what’s going to give? Oh yeah, and Australia’s harvest is down too.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article4186944.ece
One Billion Hungry: It bears repeating: one billion hungry. And if they don’t get fed, eventually they’ll die. The death certificate may not read starvation; it rarely does and instead reads pneumonia or some other condition that wouldn’t be fatal if you weren’t starving, but lack of food will be the reason. One billion people. If this doesn’t get straightened out soon, I see a LOT of dead people.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article4064650.ece
Food Supply Must Double by 2030: Oh yeah, that’s going to happen. We’ll never hit the 9 billion population number; we can’t keep feeding what we’ve got now.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article4056801.ece
U.S. Has NO Grain reserves left: Or anything else for that matter.
http://standeyo.com/NEWS/08_Food_Water/080606.no.grain.reserves.html
Hunger in the U.S.: This last line is worth remembering: “It's not dignified, but we are hungry, and hunger is ugly."
http://www.counterpunch.org/colson06182008.html
With Hunger Comes Anger: And this is only the start. Governments are going to fall over this.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/18/world/americas/18food.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
How far is the U.S. from food shortages and riots? A good article but now outdated: we had our first ‘food riot’ last week over free food vouchers in Minnesota.
http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2008/04/12/18492403.php

Energy –This is our second horsem –er, crisis. (I promise, I’ll stop.) Oil has peaked. That’s just the plain out truth, folks. Denial can only go on so much longer. We’re on the bumpy plateau where output is relatively steady while demand keeps climbing. Any day now we’ll tip down on the other side. Prices have gone up so far because demand has out run supply. Demand destruction has been taking place for a couple of years now; I’ve seen pictures of countries that have gone dark because their electricity was generated by oil and they stopped being able to afford the oil a while back. What’s going to happen when output starts noticeably shrinking and no matter how much we drill we can’t get it back up to what it was? Remember peak oil doesn’t mean that we’re out of oil –it means we’re at half a tank and the half that’s left is harder to get at, more expensive, and more ecologically destructive. Thus supply will keep going down and demand will be forced to match. Tar sands won’t save us; not only do they require almost as much energy to extract the oil as you get out of the oil, but they require massive inputs of water and natural gas. The former is hard to come by in the locations of the tar sands and the latter has peaked too. Uh-oh. Drilling off shore won’t save us; no 200,000 b/d field is going to replace mighty Cantarell, which is crashing so hard and fast Mexico might be out of oil to export next year. Not only that, but the U.S. alone uses 21 million barrels a day and the world, 84 million. Divide 200,000 into one of those figure and what do you get? Spare change.
Heating oil. Heating oil comes from oil. It’s about $4.50 a gallon right now. People may freeze to death in the northeast this winter because they can’t afford to heat their houses. Others may turn to electric space heaters which some project could bring down the entire northeast electrical grid. Why? Not only is it all ready at capacity, but its as antiquated as a Ford Model-T. (As are all the grid in the U.S. btw, which is one of the main problems with electric cars.) Hydrogen cars are a joke. Natural gas has peaked, and most of what’s left on the continent is in Canada –how long will they keep sending it to us when they need it to heat their own homes? Next we’ll be invading Canada.
Electricity. Most electricity in this country comes from coal, natural gas, nuclear, or oil. Aside from the problems with nuclear it requires massive amounts of water. They almost had to shut the nuke plants here in the southeast down last summer because the drought had lowered the water tables so much. But at least we have enough coal to last a lot longer –right? Right???? I hate to break it to you, but we don’t have nearly as much in the way of coal reserves as we’ve been led to believe. A report I read not too long ago suggest that coal may peak in as little as 30 years. That ‘peak’ word is going to become a four letter word soon, huh? That’s what happens when you base your society on non-renewable resources. Basically we’re…nah, I won’t say it. You get the idea. Some recent headlines on energy:
The U.S. at $200 a barrel oil: A good look at the impacts of oil at $200 a barrel. (Here’s a hint: it ain’t pretty. It’s also just about inevitable.)
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oil28-2008jun28,0,5808547,full.story
OIL: Problems, problems, and more problems Check this out: China imported 25% more oil in May, oil production fell last year, oil stockpiles dropped in the U.S. for the 4th week in a row. Can anyone spell higher prices?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeEdT.gCehSQ&refer=home
$150 a barrel oil, happy 4th of July: Analysts are now saying oil will hit $150 a barrel by July 4th. Others are also predicting $200 a barrel by New Year’s. I see even more dead people.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080606.woilole0606/BNStory/Front
Coal in the U.S.: From Richard Heinberg. http://globalpublicmedia.com/museletter_194_coal_in_the_united_states

Credit and the Economy –ok, the globalized economy is going down the tubes. That’s the way it is and there won’t be any changing it. A lot of this is due to the rising price of oil. The projections I’ve seen suggest the airlines will be dead (at least for ordinary folks) within two years with oil this high, much less higher. Not only do we have the housing collapse, but we have the beginnings of what may be a greater depression than the ‘great’ depression. A lot of people are going to lose their jobs and/or their homes. Some manufacturing is starting to shift back to the U.S. because the shipping costs bite. Paradoxically, other jobs are starting to be off-shored precisely because they don’t have any shipping costs, and these are the jobs that have always been ‘safe’ before: engineering, accounting, management, etc. A lot of people are going to be in a race to see whose finances collapse first: theirs or the banks.

Climate –Climate change is rapidly becoming an out and out crisis. Sea level is rising at an inch a year, the weather’s gone completely crazy in many places, and temp’s are going up, up, up. This one is only going to get worse . Buckle up, folks. It’s going to be a bumpy ride. Projections range from a rainy day at the park to Armageddon; the reality will be somewhere in between but probably slightly closer to the latter. Some relevant headlines:
North Pole May Be Ice Free This Summer: So long to the polar bears (and thanks for all the fish).
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/06/27/north.pole.melting/index.html
Oceans warming 50% faster than thought: This partly explains the higher than anticipated sea level rise. Of course, the rest is explained by the faster than anticipated glacial and ice cap melt.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/06/18/scisea118.xml

Collapse Hitting Home

The slow moving collapse of western society is finally hitting home. Two weeks ago my neighbor across the street got foreclosed on. A sheriff’s deputy and a goon squad showed up early in the morning with the foreclosure notice and an immediate eviction notice. There not required to give you any time to vacate the premises here, so they didn’t. The deputy gave her the notice and the goons started hauling her and her son’s things to the curb. She still hasn’t got a permanent place to live.

Three of my neighbors moved out today. Just on my street. I know that it’s moving season but that’s a little excessive. Two of them left in a big hurry and left a bunch of stuff behind. A partial list of the things I got off the curb at one house (incidentally next door to the one across from me where the foreclosure happened): two big bags of garden soil, several good shelves, a nice expensive looking coffee table, a TV, a printer (still in the box!), and an unopened bag of charcoal.

More and more homeless are appearing on the streets. The missions and shelters here are overwhelmed. The food pantries are running on empty. As soon as something comes in it goes right back out again. Food prices are skyrocketing right along with the price of gas. And this is only the first of the shocks on the long road down from the Age of Oil.

How am I coping? Mostly by storing food. Don’t laugh. It’s an utterly practical endeavor. Today I froze a bunch of things. One pint each of blueberries and blackberries, half a pint each of raspberries and plums and a bunch of apples, grapefruits, and tomatoes that were given to me. I froze rather than dried the last because there weren’t enough to dry or can and the tomatoes were all ready too ripe.

Another incident happened today that is worth mentioning. I was preparing to leave home to go clean a house and had just checked my mail. I was walking back to the car when suddenly I saw a hawk come winging out of the forest. The hawk is one of my spirit guides. This hawk flew out of the forest and over the neighborhood, then swung back towards me. For several minutes it hovered above me, circling over my head. It was maybe twenty feet in the air. Then with a cry it went on hunting. I watched it for several minutes before it went out of sight and then I went on my way. What it means I have no idea, save that I felt much more relaxed and peaceful after that. Maybe it was trying to tell me something I remember my great aunt saying when I was very young, before she died: this too shall pass.

To The Last Drop

So, let's look at how desperate our country is for oil. We've invaded one country to get their supplies. There's sabre rattling over Iran, and I doubt its because of their nuclear program (which all the intelligence says can't make a bomb anyhow). There's a move to drill in the most environmentally sensitive areas of the world, where the slightest mistake (perhaps even just the mere presence of such equipment) would be an utter disaster. We've created an ecological nightmare out of Alberta and some want to repeat that in North Dakota. None of this even takes into account the disaster (and ecological travesty) that is ethanol, both sugar and corn based. And for what? A thick black liquid that is the biological remains of long-dead algal blooms.

A liquid which is also poisonous, which heats the planet, which destroys the enviornment whenever it gets loose and is just nasty in every sense of the word.

Can anyone say addiction? This is the classic behavior of an addict. We will do anything we need to -kill, destroy property, sell off everything we own, even foul our own nests -just to get another fix of this nasty black liquid. What is wrong with us? Can't we see what we are doing?

I have to get to work. I have to go to the store. I have to take the kids to soccer practice, or band, or ballet. And all of that requires that I use gasoline made from oil. That is the refrain we tell ourselves. And yet -look at the results of this lifestyle that is 'non-negotiable'. This lifestyle is destroying the very planet on which we depend for our lives, and our children's lives.

But it is non-negotiable? Again, I bring up the addiction argument. Only an addict would risk their children's very lives for their own selfish short-term comfort. For that is, in the end, what we are doing. When our actions are phrased in such a fashion, it is hard to argue that going to the store everyday or band camp is a requirement. It is hard to see what we are doing as anything but a crime and a sin. I do not use those labels lightly, as I have been accused of "sinning" so many times for doing nothing to hurt anybody that I could vomit. In my book, the only 'sin' is something that harms another. And that is just what we are doing. We are harming ourselves, our planet, our children, by this addiction to oil. And when someone points out that we are addicted we act like spoiled children and scream about our 'right' to use the oil, how we 'need' it, and how no one should be able to say otherwise.

Nor am I any better than anyone else in this race. I too am still addicted to fossil fuels. But its time to break the addiction. Its time to stop this madness. For ourselves, for our planet, and for our children. After all, in the final analysis it will be them we answer too. How are we going to explain this to them?

Why didn't I take the blue pill?

Why didn’t I take the blue pill?

I don’t know how many times I’ve asked myself that question –or some variation thereof –over the past few years. I expect I will ask it even more often in the years to come as the full implications of our situation begin to show and reality hits hard and heavy. For those who aren’t familiar with the reference, it comes from a scene in the Matrix wherein Morpheus offers Neo a choice between two pills, and he has to take one. If he takes the blue pill, the adventure is over and he wakes up none the worse for it. If, however, he chooses the red pill, then things will really get interesting. (Obviously, he chooses the red.)

This situation is repeated thousands, if not millions, of times throughout mythology, literature, and history. The details and the participants vary infinitely, but the base of the situation remains the same: that is, someone must make a choice between changing, opening their eyes, or leaving on an adventure, and keeping things the way they are. The one offering the choice might be another person, circumstance, or (especially in myths) something of the Divine. In these stories the protagonist always chooses to go, to take the assignment, to swallow the red pill. Frodo accepts the ring from his uncle; Luke Skywalker goes off with Ben Kenobi; the young high school kid joins the army. Otherwise, things wouldn’t be interesting and you wouldn’t have a story.

These situations happen in real life as well. In fact, they are so common that every person has several of them in their life. We usually refer to these as turning points, or forks in the road. The fate of the world usually doesn’t hang in the balance, but the course of our lives certainly does. Many of these choices radically alter the path we will take. Do you go out with Betty or don’t you? Do you take that archaeology class? What about that summer internship in South America? Joining little league baseball? As common as these things are, a person’s entire life revolves on the outcome. Some have more import than others: what job to take, where to live, who to marry.

One of the defining moments of my life was definitely the decision to look in-depth at our environmental problems, at climate change, and at Peak Oil. I definitely took the red pill on that one. And sometimes, I want to kick myself in the pants for it. Not because I’m sorry I did it, or because I want to take it back. But because it is so damn difficult to know.

I’m sure you’ve felt it. The roiling sensation in your gut when you read that the plastic garbage pit in the Pacific Ocean is now the size of the entire continental U.S. The faint nausea when the full implications of the latest climate change projections kick in. The awful sense of foreboding that comes upon reading that sea levels are now rising at an inch a year. The panic, the denial, the confusion, the horror, that comes from realizing the full weight of what we’ve done to the planet and ourselves –and the fear of the consequences. Your emotions might be slightly different, but I bet you’ve felt something like these.

It is so very, very difficult to know these kind of things. Especially when everyone around you is either clueless or in denial. I look at these people I see everywhere and I shake my head. How different my life would be if I had never looked into these things! I could be just like them –oblivious, happy, blissfully in denial, just going about everyday life without feeling like my head is about to explode. Sometimes I feel like a time traveler from the future and I’m stuck in a city that’s about to be destroyed. I’m torn between trying to warn people –and running for the hills to save my own a**.

Don’t misunderstand me. I’m glad I know. I wouldn’t put the genie back in the bottle even if I could. I’m one of those people who would rather know the worst and face things head on than be surprised or deny the truth. But it is a very, very hard burden to bear. Everywhere I turn I am pressure to conform, to get back into line, to deny the truth of what I know to be fact. These pressures come from many sources: society itself, the government, the media, my family and friends, even the longing of my own inner heart. I am as susceptible as anyone else to desires for the things possible in our society –fancy clothes, trips to Europe, nice furnishings, tropical fruit, and on and on. I am sure that everyone who reads this has felt these same pressures.

What is the best way to deal with these pressures? Here’s a list that I think will come in handy.

1.) Turn off the TV, the radio, and other forms of mass media. Limit how much you allow yourself per day or week. These are the biggest sources of misinformation, pressure to conform, and pressure to consume that you will encounter. That’s what advertisements and product placements (not to mention the evening news) are designed to do. Besides, you can’t envy the 10,000 square foot McMansions on the sitcoms if you don’t see them and everyone around you has ordinary houses.

2.) Stay away from the malls, and when you go to the store take a list, stick to it, and get out as fast as you can –avoiding everything you possibly can. The longer you’re in there and the more of the store you see, the more likely you are to get suckered into extra stuff.

3.) Don’t argue with your family and friends. Sure, you want them to agree with you, but arguing may cause a whole lot more harm than good. You might alienate them, and that’s the last thing you want to do. Instead, change your own life slowly, and when they ask, explain to them what you are doing and why. Go slowly. Be gentle. Leave copies of articles on the kitchen table for your wife to read. Coming to terms with the problems in the world is like coming to terms with your own death or that of a loved one –in fact, the process is the same. Look up Elizabeth Kubler Ross for more info. It is a grieving process in a lot of ways –only the death is that of a culture, a worldview, a civilization, even the future you thought you and your family had. That’s why it’s so hard to deal with. For those with children it is even worse, particularly if the children are young. We are hard wired to protect our kids and there is no way to protect them entirely from this. This is why so many parents (in my experience, particularly mothers) are so much more susceptible to remaining in denial.

4.) Take care of yourself. Eat right. Exercise. You’ll be surprised how much this helps.

5.) This is most important –Change your life. For your own health and sanity, do this. You can’t go on as you were after discovering these things. You have to start making changes. The reasoning behind this has to do with a phenomenon known as cognitive dissonance. Humans have an intrinsic need for all our cognitions –our thoughts, beliefs, ideas, and actions –to match, or be in harmony. When this isn’t the case, we experience stress and a desire to reduce the disparity. This is known as cognitive dissonance. It can be extremely discomforting and stressful. In fact, it is impossible for someone to remain in this state for long. If you believe that flying is really bad for the environment but are flying every week, that will give rise to cognitive dissonance, and you will do one of three things: change your beliefs –from flying is awful to flying isn’t so bad; change your habits, and stop flying so much; or rationalize your behavior, such as ‘I have to fly for my job, and if I don’t do this someone else will.” The human mind can’t handle that kind of stress for long, so one of these three avenues will eventually be taken, and/or the stress will build to harmful levels. So how do you reduce it? As I said before, change your life. Even small changes will help –stop buying paper towels, plant a tomato bush, carpool, buy a smaller car. Your mind is screaming at you that it needs to be done anyway –so do it all ready.

On the whole, my life would be much easier right now if I’d taken the blue pill. I could be working as an engineer making nearly 60k a year and vacationing on a beach somewhere. I could have a lot less stress in my life. But, I’m glad I didn’t it. There’s no turning back once you’ve come this far. So, where’s the door out of the Matrix?

Powerful Hurricane Heading into the PERSIAN Gulf

I have only one thing to say to this: Mother Nature always bats last.

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200702A.html

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?blog=andrews&date=2007-06-04_11:02&month=6